Since August, a major lithium mining project in the Jadar River basin has ignited nationwide protests in Serbia, driven by concerns over its environmental impact.
Background and economic prospects
Following a suspension of the Rio Tinto project before this year’s spring elections—prompted by large-scale environmental protests—President Aleksandar Vučić has relaunched the initiative. The government is drawn to the promising economic benefits associated with the burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) market, viewing the project as pivotal for Serbia’s aspirations to become a central hub in the new EV supply chain. It is estimated that the mine could potentially meet over 15% of future EU EV demand, significantly boosting the country’s economy and job market.
Additionally, Vučić sees the opportunity to supply lithium to the EU as a means to alleviate some pressure from the EU regarding Serbia’s ambivalent stance between the EU and Russia. Notably, Serbia is currently the only European nation that has not imposed sanctions on Russia.
EU support and local sentiment
The European Commission, along with influential member states like Germany and France, is backing the project for national economic security reasons, as the EU aims to reduce its dependence on China for critical minerals. However, this support has fueled anti-EU sentiment among protesters.
In an ideal scenario, the mine could become operational by 2028, potentially making it the largest lithium mine in Europe. Yet, political risks loom large, with a majority of the population reportedly opposed to the project, according to recent polls. The ongoing protests also serve as a platform for the public to voice discontent with Vučić and the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
Political implications and future prospects
The pressing question remains whether Vučić will risk losing his political hold by pursuing the mining project. With the elections now behind him, he appears committed to advancing the initiative. A local referendum has been suggested to help alleviate political tensions, although its outcome remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, Rio Tinto will need to provide stronger assurances to the local population regarding environmental safeguards. Anticipating further protests in the coming months, the potential for political instability remains high. Concerns over sabotage and damage to project-related infrastructure from environmental activists could pose significant challenges to the implementation of the mine.
In summary, while the lithium project presents substantial economic opportunities for Serbia, the environmental concerns and public opposition are likely to continue shaping its future.
